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研报:德意志银行:阿里巴巴:营销手法 三月预览
发布时间:2017年05月19日 10:23:01

(电子商务研究中心讯)  宝山峰会有趣的见解;提升税率阿里巴巴将于5月18日公布3月份的Q结果。我们预计收入为36.2亿元(同比增长50%),符合一致。中国零售业增速将同比增长37%至251亿元人民币。同比增长108%至22亿元人民币,仍略有下滑。数字娱乐损失应与QoQ保持相似。由于苏宁提取5%预扣税,我们将有效税率提高至28%,数字娱乐损失只有微小数字。我们预计非GAAP净收入为106亿美元。最近与天猫品牌合作推出新兴市场计划的形式,导致我们保留购买建议。

      追求杰克“新零售”的新战略:从Uni-ID到Uni-Marketing阿里巴巴在最近的一次BZUN活动中,将其“Uni-Marketing”策略列为其最新的“新零售”计划,利用其Uni-ID来实现品牌实现洞察和与消费者的互动。该公司将于7月份推出新的营销工具包,包括BPDB,Uni-Desk,Uni-CRM,Uni-Strategy(本文档案)。例如百事可乐与阿里巴巴签署了跨市场计划,定制产品和全方位解决方案的协议。我们在这方面继续听到品牌的良好反馈。

      BABA的6月8 - 9日活动应该提供更多的业务洞察力。

      Cloud的另一个降价业务有可能继续亏损,在扩大市场领导地位方面仍然保持积极态度。AliCloud今年早些时候与优酷云合作,宣布降价高达35%。由于AliCloud专注于成长客户,我们预计今年将进一步降价。我们预计在未来几个总部可以逐步提高利润。

      缓解目标价2.5%至144美元,以反映较高的税费;维持BuyWe维持收入预测,并将FY-17/18非GAAP净收入减少1%/ 2,以反映更高的税率。我们采用不变的SOTP估值(参考评估部分)。风险:竞争,宏观,投资。

  Interesting insights from Baozun summit; lifting tax rateAlibaba will announce March Q results on May 18th. We expect revenue ofRMB36.2b (+50% YoY), in-line with consensus. China retail rev should grow37% YoY to RMB25.1bn on clear industry tailwinds and ad growth. Cloudshould grow 108% YoY to RMB2.2bn, still with a slight loss. Digitalentertainment losses should remain similar QoQ. We lift effective tax rate to28% due the pick-up of a 5% withholding tax on Suning and only slightlynarrowed digital and entertainment loss. We expect non-GAAP net income ofRMB10.6bn. Recent profiling of collaboration with Tmall brands behind newmarketing initiatives lead us to retain our Buy recommendation.

  Pursuing Jack’s“new retail”with new strategies: from Uni-ID to Uni-MarketingAlibaba at a recent BZUN event detailed its“Uni-Marketing”strategy as itslatest“new retail”initiative, utilizing its Uni-ID to enable the brands to achievebetter insights into, and interactions with, consumers. The company in Julywill launch a new marketing toolkit, incl. BPDB, Uni-Desk, Uni-CRM, Uni-Strategy (profiled herein). PepsiCo for instance signed agreements withAlibaba across marketing initiatives, customized products and Omni-channelsolutions. We continue to hear favorable feedback from brands on this front.

  BABA’s Jun 8-9 event should offer further insights across the business.

  Another price cut on Cloud; business likely to continue to run at a lossAliCloud remains aggressive in expanding its market leadership. AliCloudmerged with Youku Cloud earlier this year, announcing price cuts of up to35%. We expect further price cuts this year as AliCloud focuses on growingcustomers. We expect gradual margin improvement over the next fewquarters.

  Easing TP by 2.5% to US$144 to reflect higher tax; Maintain BuyWe maintain revenue forecast and reduce FY17/18 non-GAAP net income by1%/2 to reflect a higher tax rate. We adopt unchanged SOTP valuation (refer tovaluation section). Risks: competition, macro, investment.(来源:德意志银行;文/Alan Hellawell;编选:中国电子商务研究中心)

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